NBA First Basket Predictions Tonight

Sunday, March 15, 2026 • 2025-26 Season

Who will score first tonight? Stats-based first basket predictions with player picks, tip-off probabilities, and shot type analysis for tonight's NBA games.

Updates Every 10 Minutes
First Basket Tracker Historical Stats
Dallas Mavericks @ Cleveland Cavaliers
03/15/2026 02:40 PM
CLE
10 Games
1st Point
50.0%
1st FG
50.0%
Tip Win
70.0%
Most Likely First Scorers
Evan Mobley
20.0% (2/10 games)
Rim: 1
Jarrett Allen
20.0% (2/10 games)
Rim: 2
Desmond Bane
10.0% (1/10 games)
Predicted Shot Type
3-Pointer
10.0%
At Rim
60.0%
Mid-Range
20.0%
Free Throw
10.0%
DAL
10 Games
1st Point
50.0%
1st FG
50.0%
Tip Win
40.0%
Most Likely First Scorers
Daniel Gafford
30.0% (3/10 games)
Rim: 2
Evan Mobley
10.0% (1/10 games)
Brandon Ingram
10.0% (1/10 games)
Rim: 1
Predicted Shot Type
3-Pointer
20.0%
At Rim
50.0%
Mid-Range
20.0%
Free Throw
10.0%
Head-to-Head History (Last 5 Meetings)
Mar 13, 2026
Evan Mobley (CLE) - 2pt Shot
Tip: CLE
Mar 13, 2026
Evan Mobley (CLE) - 2pt Shot
Tip: CLE
Feb 02, 2025
Donovan Mitchell (CLE) - FT 1/2
Tip: CLE
Feb 02, 2025
Donovan Mitchell (CLE) - FT 1/2
Tip: CLE
Jan 04, 2025
P.J. Washington (DAL) - Dunk
Tip: CLE
Indiana Pacers @ Milwaukee Bucks
03/15/2026 02:40 PM
MIL
10 Games
1st Point
30.0%
1st FG
30.0%
Tip Win
30.0%
Most Likely First Scorers
Jalen Green
10.0% (1/10 games)
Jarrett Allen
10.0% (1/10 games)
Rim: 1
Desmond Bane
10.0% (1/10 games)
FT: 1
Predicted Shot Type
3-Pointer
20.0%
At Rim
30.0%
Mid-Range
50.0%
IND
10 Games
1st Point
60.0%
1st FG
60.0%
Tip Win
30.0%
Most Likely First Scorers
Jay Huff
20.0% (2/10 games)
3PT: 1 Rim: 1
Obi Toppin
20.0% (2/10 games)
Rim: 1
Jarace Walker
10.0% (1/10 games)
Rim: 1
Predicted Shot Type
3-Pointer
40.0%
At Rim
30.0%
Mid-Range
30.0%
Head-to-Head History (Last 5 Meetings)
Feb 07, 2026
Pascal Siakam (IND) - 3pt Shot
Tip: IND
Feb 07, 2026
Pascal Siakam (IND) - 3pt Shot
Tip: IND
Dec 24, 2025
Bennedict Mathurin (IND) - 3pt Shot
Tip: MIL
Dec 24, 2025
Bennedict Mathurin (IND) - 3pt Shot
Tip: MIL
Nov 04, 2025
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) - 2pt Shot
Tip: IND
Detroit Pistons @ Toronto Raptors
03/15/2026 02:40 PM
TOR
10 Games
1st Point
60.0%
1st FG
60.0%
Tip Win
60.0%
Most Likely First Scorers
Brandon Ingram
40.0% (4/10 games)
Rim: 2
Kevin Durant
10.0% (1/10 games)
3PT: 1
Immanuel Quickley
10.0% (1/10 games)
Predicted Shot Type
3-Pointer
10.0%
At Rim
40.0%
Mid-Range
50.0%
DET
10 Games
1st Point
50.0%
1st FG
50.0%
Tip Win
50.0%
Most Likely First Scorers
Cade Cunningham
20.0% (2/10 games)
Rim: 1
Duncan Robinson
10.0% (1/10 games)
3PT: 1
Desmond Bane
10.0% (1/10 games)
Predicted Shot Type
3-Pointer
22.2%
At Rim
44.4%
Mid-Range
11.1%
Free Throw
22.2%
Head-to-Head History (Last 5 Meetings)
Feb 12, 2026
Paul Reed (DET) - 3pt Shot
Tip: TOR
Feb 12, 2026
Paul Reed (DET) - 3pt Shot
Tip: TOR
Apr 04, 2025
Jonathan Mogbo (TOR) - Dunk
Tip: TOR
Apr 04, 2025
Jonathan Mogbo (TOR) - Dunk
Tip: TOR
Jan 12, 2025
Tim Hardaway Jr. (DET) - FT 1/2
Tip: TOR
Portland Trail Blazers @ Philadelphia 76ers
03/15/2026 05:10 PM
PHI
10 Games
1st Point
70.0%
1st FG
70.0%
Tip Win
66.7%
Most Likely First Scorers
Kelly Oubre Jr.
30.0% (3/10 games)
3PT: 1
Dominick Barlow
10.0% (1/10 games)
CJ McCollum
10.0% (1/10 games)
Predicted Shot Type
3-Pointer
10.0%
At Rim
20.0%
Mid-Range
50.0%
Free Throw
20.0%
POR
10 Games
1st Point
30.0%
1st FG
40.0%
Tip Win
70.0%
Most Likely First Scorers
Kris Murray
20.0% (2/10 games)
Rim: 1
Alperen Sengun
10.0% (1/10 games)
Ace Bailey
10.0% (1/10 games)
Predicted Shot Type
3-Pointer
40.0%
At Rim
40.0%
Mid-Range
20.0%
Head-to-Head History (Last 5 Meetings)
Feb 10, 2026
Deni Avdija (POR) - Layup
Tip: POR
Feb 10, 2026
Deni Avdija (POR) - Layup
Tip: POR
Mar 04, 2025
Quentin Grimes (PHI) - Dunk
Tip: PHI
Mar 04, 2025
Quentin Grimes (PHI) - Dunk
Tip: PHI
Dec 31, 2024
Anfernee Simons (POR) - 3pt Shot
Tip: POR
Golden State Warriors @ New York Knicks
03/15/2026 07:10 PM
NY
10 Games
1st Point
50.0%
1st FG
50.0%
Tip Win
40.0%
Most Likely First Scorers
Josh Hart
20.0% (2/10 games)
FT: 1
Derrick Jones Jr.
10.0% (1/10 games)
Cason Wallace
10.0% (1/10 games)
Rim: 1
Predicted Shot Type
3-Pointer
30.0%
Mid-Range
60.0%
Free Throw
10.0%
GS
10 Games
1st Point
70.0%
1st FG
70.0%
Tip Win
60.0%
Most Likely First Scorers
Draymond Green
20.0% (2/10 games)
Rim: 2
Moses Moody
20.0% (2/10 games)
Rim: 2
Cason Wallace
10.0% (1/10 games)
3PT: 1
Predicted Shot Type
3-Pointer
20.0%
At Rim
50.0%
Mid-Range
20.0%
Free Throw
10.0%
Head-to-Head History (Last 5 Meetings)
Jan 16, 2026
Miles McBride (NY) - 3pt Shot
Tip: NY
Jan 16, 2026
Miles McBride (NY) - 3pt Shot
Tip: NY
Mar 16, 2025
Karl-Anthony Towns (NY) - Dunk
Mar 16, 2025
Karl-Anthony Towns (NY) - Dunk
Mar 05, 2025
Jalen Brunson (NY) - Layup
Tip: NY
Utah Jazz @ Sacramento Kings
03/15/2026 09:10 PM
SAC
10 Games
1st Point
80.0%
1st FG
80.0%
Tip Win
75.0%
Most Likely First Scorers
DeMar DeRozan
30.0% (3/10 games)
Maxime Raynaud
20.0% (2/10 games)
Rim: 2
Russell Westbrook
20.0% (2/10 games)
FT: 1
Predicted Shot Type
At Rim
30.0%
Mid-Range
60.0%
Free Throw
10.0%
UTAH
10 Games
1st Point
30.0%
1st FG
40.0%
Tip Win
40.0%
Most Likely First Scorers
Ace Bailey
20.0% (2/10 games)
Gui Santos
10.0% (1/10 games)
Rim: 1
DeAndre Jordan
10.0% (1/10 games)
FT: 1
Predicted Shot Type
3-Pointer
20.0%
At Rim
30.0%
Mid-Range
40.0%
Free Throw
10.0%
Head-to-Head History (Last 5 Meetings)
Feb 12, 2026
Maxime Raynaud (SAC) - Dunk
Tip: UTAH
Feb 12, 2026
Maxime Raynaud (SAC) - Dunk
Tip: UTAH
Nov 29, 2025
Svi Mykhailiuk (UTAH) - 2pt Shot
Tip: SAC
Nov 29, 2025
Svi Mykhailiuk (UTAH) - 2pt Shot
Tip: SAC
Oct 25, 2025
Svi Mykhailiuk (UTAH) - 3pt Shot
Tip: UTAH
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Oklahoma City Thunder
03/15/2026 12:10 PM
OKC
10 Games
1st Point
50.0%
1st FG
40.0%
Tip Win
30.0%
Most Likely First Scorers
Cason Wallace
30.0% (3/10 games)
3PT: 1 Rim: 1 FT: 1
Nikola Jokic
20.0% (2/10 games)
Daniel Gafford
10.0% (1/10 games)
Rim: 1
Predicted Shot Type
3-Pointer
60.0%
At Rim
10.0%
Mid-Range
20.0%
Free Throw
10.0%
MIN
10 Games
1st Point
50.0%
1st FG
60.0%
Tip Win
30.0%
Most Likely First Scorers
Donte DiVincenzo
30.0% (3/10 games)
3PT: 3
Anthony Edwards
20.0% (2/10 games)
Brandon Ingram
10.0% (1/10 games)
Predicted Shot Type
3-Pointer
50.0%
Mid-Range
50.0%
Head-to-Head History (Last 5 Meetings)
Jan 30, 2026
Anthony Edwards (MIN) - Jumper
Tip: OKC
Jan 30, 2026
Anthony Edwards (MIN) - Jumper
Tip: OKC
Dec 20, 2025
Anthony Edwards (MIN) - 3pt Shot
Tip: MIN
Dec 20, 2025
Anthony Edwards (MIN) - 3pt Shot
Tip: MIN
Nov 27, 2025
Jaden McDaniels (MIN) - 3pt Shot
Tip: OKC